Hamilton/Zeall: Silver Corrects or Crashes ?

[xzorro]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton043004.html

[xzorro]

Hamilton is of opinion that this was probably NOT a bearish crash but just a healthy bull market correction.

This is based on a.o. the following considerations:
1. supply and demand imbalance so remains extremely bullish for the PoS
2. there was no popular mania (yet) surrounding silver and silver stocks. The bull market is far too young to be entering a mature climax stage.

So, DYODD

[clark kent]

I wonder if he would agree with Clive Mauld's take on silver diving in a stock exchange crash...

"Currently, the World's Reserve Currency, the US dollar, which has had a torrid last two years, having lost 30% of its value, has rebounded 10% in the last 6 weeks. No coincidence that this change in the dollars' fortunes exactly coincides with the sharp downturn in the Bond markets, and Al's coded signals about interest rate rises to come. The stage has been set. The smoke signals have gone up. Those traders now leveraged to the hilt in the Bond and Real Estate Markets have been given the blatant signal "Game Over". The smart ones are rushing for dollars to exit their dangerously exposed short positions. This has pushed up the US$ Index, which is now testing its 200-day moving average, as shown on Figure 4. It could well break through it leading to a dollar spike lasting a few months while the Bond and Real Estate markets cover their positions. During this time the commodities markets will take a terrific hammering, with the realization that interest rates will rise significantly enough to kill off the bull market and usher in a recession, or, more likely, a major depression . The writer expects nickel and copper to fall to between 75% and 50% of their current prices, despite recent years demand from the Chinese markets. This is apparent on the copper chart, shown on Figure 5. As with copper and nickel, so with silver and platinum, which are, after all commodity metals."

Anybody disagree??
I generally think silver would take on its monetary persona, but I'm not sure...

[lhslancers]

Hamilton is of opinion that this was probably NOT a bearish crash but just a healthy bull market correction.

This is based on a.o. the following considerations:
1. supply and demand imbalance so remains extremely bullish for the PoS
2. there was no popular mania (yet) surrounding silver and silver stocks. The bull market is far too young to be entering a mature climax stage.

So, DYODD


No mania for silver stocks? See SSRI. If this is a bull market in silver then yes it is young. Could just turn out to be a nice rally in a bear market. Let's see some bounce in the price. This is starting to look very ill.

[PONCE]

Why listen to those so called technical analyzers? As far as I am concern if they were that smart, or that rich, they all would be in Tahiti drinking a Margarita or what ever they drink down there and not spending 2 hours a day in their comp trying to get more suckers to believe in them.

You can read therefore you can think, you can think therefore you can reason, you can reason therefore you can come up with your own conclusions.

Believe in yourself and no one else. To me what is going on now is like someone placing a black hood over your head, as far as you are concern the whole world is black but what you are looking at is micro inch of what is really going on.

WE ARE GOING BACK TO THE DOLLAR STANDARD NO MATTER WHAT, why do you think the Rochis got out of the gold market? They are now accumulating all the gold, and land, that they can get because the next step in the evolution of money will be there,,,,,,, oh yeah, also in water.

[clark kent]

Nice stuff ! But what about silver in a major stock market crash - commodity or monetary???

[asimpowers]

Nice stuff ! But what about silver in a major stock market crash - commodity or monetary???

Let's say the U.S. stock market crashes. Do you think all these factories in Asia are just going to shut down? IMHO, the decline of the US standard will have a short to intermediate negative impact on all commodities, but these factories will keep on truckin' and they will sell to who? Themselves. Thus, the commodities train will keep on moving. More importantly, all commodities are part paper and part real. In gold and silver, it is more paper than real, which has kept the price depressed for the past 20 years. When the paper becomes ineffective, then the real aspects of the supply-demand deficits will take hold and then your main concern will not be the price of gold/silver, but where to get it.

[lhslancers]

Let's say the U.S. stock market crashes. Do you think all these factories in Asia are just going to shut down? IMHO, the decline of the US standard will have a short to intermediate negative impact on all commodities, but these factories will keep on truckin' and they will sell to who? Themselves. Thus, the commodities train will keep on moving. More importantly, all commodities are part paper and part real. In gold and silver, it is more paper than real, which has kept the price depressed for the past 20 years. When the paper becomes ineffective, then the real aspects of the supply-demand deficits will take hold and then your main concern will not be the price of gold/silver, but where to get it.

I'm not saying that I don't believe we go higher in the pm's but at some point it had better go up or this is all one big bs story. It's like the guy with all that potential who never does shit. At some point it's OK where's the effen beef.

[HistoryStudent]

Let's say the U.S. stock market crashes. Do you think all these factories in Asia are just going to shut down? IMHO, the decline of the US standard will have a short to intermediate negative impact on all commodities, but these factories will keep on truckin' and they will sell to who? Themselves. Thus, the commodities train will keep on moving. More importantly, all commodities are part paper and part real. In gold and silver, it is more paper than real, which has kept the price depressed for the past 20 years. When the paper becomes ineffective, then the real aspects of the supply-demand deficits will take hold and then your main concern will not be the price of gold/silver, but where to get it.

Like that kind of thinking. Europe, China's NEW buddy while giving America the fickle finger, is now bigger than the USA. The deck on the USA Titanic is shifting while a new Queen Mary Europe is gathering passengers for the power is shifting back to Europe after 135 years of problems.

The American top is starting to wobble and the string is being passed to the OLD STINKING MONEY in Europe. All the KINGS MEN and all the horses put HUMPTY DUMPTY back together again. The New Romans are the Europeans and soon a man of peace will emerge. Keep watch for like a thief in the night all we be changed.

[clark kent]

I found something about this subject from Dave Morgan:

"...The answer is people everywhere will flock to safety and gold is safe but unaffordable to everyone. There are billions more people worldwide that can afford to buy silver than cannot afford to buy gold. Since the world’s financial system is based upon the U.S. dollar when the dollar goes down eventually all currencies will go down, with the exception of the world’s oldest and best known money silver and gold. The Western cultures have been convinced that silver is an industrial commodity, but more than half of the world view silver as money. Silver has a long history as money in Mexico, Latin America, and Asia.

....Silver does best during inflation, whether perceived or real.

..Although the investment demand for silver is far less than gold it is a much smaller market, but fearful people vote with their local currency. When people fear their economic future they will grab what they can get. Because there are so many people that would flee from their currency to anything of value and the silver market is so much smaller than the gold market it becomes a rhetorical question, how many panicked investors on a world wide basis would be needed to cause the price of silver to explode?

...We are of the strongly held belief that in the coming currency crisis that the old highs in both gold and silver will be taken out. Meaning specifically we see gold well over $1000.00 U.S. and silver above $50.00 U.S. The time frame is a tougher call, the last major bull markets in the metals lasted roughly a decade and we see this one lastly that long as well...."

[silverhunt]

Are the shorters crazy? When US $ is going down against other major currencies, silver is still going down against US$! Do they have brains?
:thumpdown :thumpdown :thumpdown

[Buster]

Very interesting thread, folks. Here's my 2 cents..
First, I don't know what happens next. So what the !&#! is going on? My gut says we're all being conned by the masters, again. These days, the markets are all choreographed, with predetermined outcomes at predetermined times. Yes, all the world's a stage.

But there are some conclusions we can draw. For instance, the world's powers are struggling for natural resources as never before, over water, land, energy, precious and base metals and all other commodities. What we are seeing is a struggle among the titans to control the resources and the future. Us little guys the world over are just stage props of no consequence, in their minds.

I had a feeling earlier this year that the metals might get stomped because this is an election year, and they might not move much until it's over. What made the latest stomp possible (as always) was investors playing the paper markets (and supplying the liquidity), which the masters control, and who can pull the rug out any time they please.

We are also at war, though undeclared. When America jumped into WWII, my grandfather had his sheetmetal shop confiscated by the government. The same thing happened to my wife's grandfather's business. The government needed the materials for the war effort. If you know what I mean.

Anyway, Ponce, I agree with you about technical analysis. They're all full of $hit. I don't believe TA is valid in a manipulated market. The manipulators are looking at the same charts we are, only they are no longer allowing the same outcomes (profits) stemming from chart patterns that historically yielded gains. Anyone read Ted Warren's book on channels? That's what I mean. It no longer works.

As for silver, I think this is the monster shakeout before the monster breakout. The only question is, when??? Ted Butler doesn't know, and I appreciate his honesty, and therefore do not lump him in with the F.O.S. analysts. Because they do all know, of course. He-he.

In a dicey world, commodities are scarce, precious and expensive, so we know where they are going. But I think a storm is approaching that may wash over us all. The preparations I have made might not benefit me in my own lifetime, and may be best scattered to the four winds, until a day when my children may benefit from my efforts.

I think common sense, intuition and a belief that there is good in the world and that it will one day prevail will keep you on an even keel while all around you totters. Because whatever happens on a material level doesn't matter as much as your life, your health and the people you love.

Way off track here, sorry

[lhslancers]

Inability to rally today not good in my opinion for silver.