Uncle
05-29-2003, 06:58 AM
IMF says concerted action needed if dollar continues to decline rapidly
Wed May 28, 3:49 AM__ ET
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=1518&u=/afp/20030528/bs_afp/germany_imf_economy_030528074905&printer=1
FRANKFURT (AFP) - A further rapid decline in the dollar would require concerted action from governments and central banks, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund ( news - web sites) (IMF) Horst Koehler said in a newspaper interview.
The dollar has lost around 30 percent of its value against the euro within the past year and Koehler told the business daily Handelsblatt such a development was no surprise given the United States' huge current account deficit.
"On a trade-weighted basis, the depreciation is around 16 percent. That's still within limits and should come as no surprise given the huge current account deficit of the US," Koehler said.
"But there comes a point when a further rapid decline in the dollar would demand that a number of governments and central banks should come together. However, I don't want to speculate about this point publicly," he added.
The euro soared to an all-time high of 1.1933 dollars on Tuesday, a rise of around 45 percent from the historic lows it ploughed to in October 2000.
And experts believe the single currency is set to rise still further.
The IMF chief was cautiously optimistic regarding the outlook for global growth this year.
He says the fund was sticking to its forecast for global growth of 3.2 percent in 2003 "and of a gradual recovery in the world economy in the second half of the year."
Momentum was most likely to come from a gradual recovery in the US economy," he said.
"And we're also counting on continued robust growth in Asia, despite Japan and SARS ( news - web sites). Thanks to the pleasing development in Brazil, Latin America is at a positive turning point. But I must concede, there is still no determining factor for strong growth momentum in the global economy," Koehler said.
Koehler said that with the US economy expected to grow only sluggishly in the next few months, it was up to Europe and Japan to pull their weight as well.
In the euro zone in particular, "product and labour markets must be liberalised much more. Europeans are paying for their political indecisiveness about how to unleash dynamic market forces with shortfalls in growth."
Asked whether the European Central Bank should cut its key rates to help spur growth, Koehler replied: "Yes."
Comment
I've read only a few books by Douglas Adams, not that I don't enjoy his way of doing but rather due to a lack of crono-capacity.
One book that I'm very fond of is Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency, ISBN 0330301624. In short summary. Mr Gently believes in the interconnectedness of all things, in the same vain as Chaos Theory. The reader is taken on many an apparent detour, often with the desired outcome. Something like Frank Columbo meets Stephen Hawkins. Well, not quite, but read the book if you haven't done so yet.
One can see from the article above that everything is indeed connected. I've read quite a bit regarding the modern history of money, NWO etc and most of the workings were done one or more layers away.
So how do I connect Dirk Gently to the IMF ? Well I'm not quite sure myself....It sort of just popped in. Locally the we have Mr Tito Mboweni, Governor, South African Reserve Bank, and chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee. In the US and other IMF participants are Central (Reserve) Banks and governors.
Huge amounts of media time is spent examining the utterings of these entities and every word and nuance is debated ad-infinitum. Why ? The IMF is describing to each and all CBs what to do. The individual CBs would then find a way of explaining their movements to the locals via some form of economic data. (By the way, it would appear that the same Keneysian data could be used to explain quite a lot of things). I would ass-u-me that the desired outcome is communicated, from the IMF to the CBs, via e-mail, fax or phone, or some layered device.
Now the part that has me confused. Why the public statement that all CBs must join hands and help the dollar ? Why not use the usual channels of communication and boost the US$Index back to 120 ? Unless "they" are positioning to short when convenient ?
One other question. If I understand this correctly the CBs will be asked to absorb MORE dollars, even after the debt ceiling has been increased by 984 B$US together with a 350 B$US tax cut ? This would appear to be an extra 1.2 T$US liquidity. What would happen if the CBs refuse? Invasion by Untag? These people should perhaps do a trading course or read some books :) Selling GOLD at the bottom, and buying $US just after an overhang has been created.
Is there any source of data that correlated the utterings of the IMF with FX moves ?
Perhaps the advice of Pandagold should not be taken lightly "Have fun, you can still make money, just don't be sidetracked by details." http://www.goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?s=&postid=2559#post2559
I think I have fair idea of what the intended outcome of all this is supposed to be but deciphering the moves there is the tricky part. TPTB have been doing this for a while, so one could hardly be surprised at the apparent obfuscation.
One last thing, quote from article heading "IMF says concerted action needed if dollar continues to decline rapidly. Where I come from "concerted action" is against the rules. Perhaps we're just behind the times?
Good luck to all. And keep on practicing to increase the luck coefficient :)
Golden Regards
Uncle
Wed May 28, 3:49 AM__ ET
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=1518&u=/afp/20030528/bs_afp/germany_imf_economy_030528074905&printer=1
FRANKFURT (AFP) - A further rapid decline in the dollar would require concerted action from governments and central banks, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund ( news - web sites) (IMF) Horst Koehler said in a newspaper interview.
The dollar has lost around 30 percent of its value against the euro within the past year and Koehler told the business daily Handelsblatt such a development was no surprise given the United States' huge current account deficit.
"On a trade-weighted basis, the depreciation is around 16 percent. That's still within limits and should come as no surprise given the huge current account deficit of the US," Koehler said.
"But there comes a point when a further rapid decline in the dollar would demand that a number of governments and central banks should come together. However, I don't want to speculate about this point publicly," he added.
The euro soared to an all-time high of 1.1933 dollars on Tuesday, a rise of around 45 percent from the historic lows it ploughed to in October 2000.
And experts believe the single currency is set to rise still further.
The IMF chief was cautiously optimistic regarding the outlook for global growth this year.
He says the fund was sticking to its forecast for global growth of 3.2 percent in 2003 "and of a gradual recovery in the world economy in the second half of the year."
Momentum was most likely to come from a gradual recovery in the US economy," he said.
"And we're also counting on continued robust growth in Asia, despite Japan and SARS ( news - web sites). Thanks to the pleasing development in Brazil, Latin America is at a positive turning point. But I must concede, there is still no determining factor for strong growth momentum in the global economy," Koehler said.
Koehler said that with the US economy expected to grow only sluggishly in the next few months, it was up to Europe and Japan to pull their weight as well.
In the euro zone in particular, "product and labour markets must be liberalised much more. Europeans are paying for their political indecisiveness about how to unleash dynamic market forces with shortfalls in growth."
Asked whether the European Central Bank should cut its key rates to help spur growth, Koehler replied: "Yes."
Comment
I've read only a few books by Douglas Adams, not that I don't enjoy his way of doing but rather due to a lack of crono-capacity.
One book that I'm very fond of is Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency, ISBN 0330301624. In short summary. Mr Gently believes in the interconnectedness of all things, in the same vain as Chaos Theory. The reader is taken on many an apparent detour, often with the desired outcome. Something like Frank Columbo meets Stephen Hawkins. Well, not quite, but read the book if you haven't done so yet.
One can see from the article above that everything is indeed connected. I've read quite a bit regarding the modern history of money, NWO etc and most of the workings were done one or more layers away.
So how do I connect Dirk Gently to the IMF ? Well I'm not quite sure myself....It sort of just popped in. Locally the we have Mr Tito Mboweni, Governor, South African Reserve Bank, and chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee. In the US and other IMF participants are Central (Reserve) Banks and governors.
Huge amounts of media time is spent examining the utterings of these entities and every word and nuance is debated ad-infinitum. Why ? The IMF is describing to each and all CBs what to do. The individual CBs would then find a way of explaining their movements to the locals via some form of economic data. (By the way, it would appear that the same Keneysian data could be used to explain quite a lot of things). I would ass-u-me that the desired outcome is communicated, from the IMF to the CBs, via e-mail, fax or phone, or some layered device.
Now the part that has me confused. Why the public statement that all CBs must join hands and help the dollar ? Why not use the usual channels of communication and boost the US$Index back to 120 ? Unless "they" are positioning to short when convenient ?
One other question. If I understand this correctly the CBs will be asked to absorb MORE dollars, even after the debt ceiling has been increased by 984 B$US together with a 350 B$US tax cut ? This would appear to be an extra 1.2 T$US liquidity. What would happen if the CBs refuse? Invasion by Untag? These people should perhaps do a trading course or read some books :) Selling GOLD at the bottom, and buying $US just after an overhang has been created.
Is there any source of data that correlated the utterings of the IMF with FX moves ?
Perhaps the advice of Pandagold should not be taken lightly "Have fun, you can still make money, just don't be sidetracked by details." http://www.goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?s=&postid=2559#post2559
I think I have fair idea of what the intended outcome of all this is supposed to be but deciphering the moves there is the tricky part. TPTB have been doing this for a while, so one could hardly be surprised at the apparent obfuscation.
One last thing, quote from article heading "IMF says concerted action needed if dollar continues to decline rapidly. Where I come from "concerted action" is against the rules. Perhaps we're just behind the times?
Good luck to all. And keep on practicing to increase the luck coefficient :)
Golden Regards
Uncle