silversliver
11-16-2007, 07:46 AM
Hello Gimmer's,
I have been trading options for only about 10 months now and have had some expensive lessons. I have been watching the markets everyday for the past 18 months. I'm not crazy yet but getting there. I have been following a pattern which has helped me save and make some money for the past few months and wanted to share this info or at least get someone else's more learned opinion on my findings.
I currently have puts on the dow, s&p and nasdaq and calls on 4 different miners (AUY,HL,SLW,& PAAS). I usually get the calls about 3 to 6 months out and the puts about 2 to 3 months until expiration.
A general Observation is If the market (DOW/NASDAQ/+S&P) is manipulated higher by the Fed pumping and buying it's almost a given that the mining stocks follow along (very rare to diverse from this trend)
When the HUI rises and the options start making you money then almost like clockwork they (whoever you want them to be) will start to attack POG and POS - They will let the market go down to slam the mining stocks. They used to be able to do this by having central banks sell gold to flood market to knock down POG - They are running low and are having a hard time convincing all of the central banks to go along with this manipulation tactic.
So let's then move to the Yen carry trade - This is how they are controlling the POG now. It is also how they are getting a little bounce in the USDX $ - Watch for when the Yen gains and the US $ gains - The nasdaq (QQQQ) also takes a hit from speculators having to cover along with speculators in AU/AG
So basically I'm buying QQQQ puts when the Hui gets a nice gain and selling 1/3 of the options once they are in the money with a 35% to 50% gain
and then selling 1/2 the QQQQ puts once they gain 50% to 100%.
For some reason the QQQQ puts really seem to move up and down in option price a lot faster than the HUI miner stock options,
Even with a 11% loss to entire portfolio last monday I am still Up about 13% in past few months.
I feel this method gives me protection(insurance) from a major market crash and a POG explosion(my train ticket in hand)
DYOD - Options are harder to work than I would have thought for you newbies.
Anybody with any other stats that they watch and react too? Please share!:s9:
I have been trading options for only about 10 months now and have had some expensive lessons. I have been watching the markets everyday for the past 18 months. I'm not crazy yet but getting there. I have been following a pattern which has helped me save and make some money for the past few months and wanted to share this info or at least get someone else's more learned opinion on my findings.
I currently have puts on the dow, s&p and nasdaq and calls on 4 different miners (AUY,HL,SLW,& PAAS). I usually get the calls about 3 to 6 months out and the puts about 2 to 3 months until expiration.
A general Observation is If the market (DOW/NASDAQ/+S&P) is manipulated higher by the Fed pumping and buying it's almost a given that the mining stocks follow along (very rare to diverse from this trend)
When the HUI rises and the options start making you money then almost like clockwork they (whoever you want them to be) will start to attack POG and POS - They will let the market go down to slam the mining stocks. They used to be able to do this by having central banks sell gold to flood market to knock down POG - They are running low and are having a hard time convincing all of the central banks to go along with this manipulation tactic.
So let's then move to the Yen carry trade - This is how they are controlling the POG now. It is also how they are getting a little bounce in the USDX $ - Watch for when the Yen gains and the US $ gains - The nasdaq (QQQQ) also takes a hit from speculators having to cover along with speculators in AU/AG
So basically I'm buying QQQQ puts when the Hui gets a nice gain and selling 1/3 of the options once they are in the money with a 35% to 50% gain
and then selling 1/2 the QQQQ puts once they gain 50% to 100%.
For some reason the QQQQ puts really seem to move up and down in option price a lot faster than the HUI miner stock options,
Even with a 11% loss to entire portfolio last monday I am still Up about 13% in past few months.
I feel this method gives me protection(insurance) from a major market crash and a POG explosion(my train ticket in hand)
DYOD - Options are harder to work than I would have thought for you newbies.
Anybody with any other stats that they watch and react too? Please share!:s9: