G-khan
02-25-2006, 12:40 PM
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Investment Commentary (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4674.htm)
Stock indices are stuck in an upside to sideways pattern. Expect more upside before an intermediate term correction starts. The charts in the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 and major European indices look like they have some breadth left to move to the upside.
Just the Facts (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4673.htm)
It is worth noting that gold is demonstrating impressive safe haven qualities, surging $10 today after the attempted terrorist attack on a Saudi oil complex.
Probabilities of Recession (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4672.htm)
This week we look at the possible direction of interest rates both at the long end and the short end. Bottom line: history suggests there is some serious volatility in the future on the long end of the interest rate curve later in the year.
Too Big to Burst (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4667.htm)
It is widely believed that the Federal government has an unofficial policy that some banks and other financial institutions are simply too big to fail. As a result, it is assumed that the government will take any action necessary to ensure that they do no
M3 Outrage (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4671.htm)
For a few months now we've been hearing some voices in the investment and economic communities sound off about the Fed's decision to cease publishing M3 money supply figures. The publicly stated reason given by the Fed for ending the public release of M3
Understanding Nevada's Emerging Gold Plays (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4670.htm)
If Nevada was a separate country, it would rank as the world's #3 gold producer, with most of that production coming from the Carlin trend where over 50,000,000 ounces of gold have already been produced.
Neutral HUI Technicals (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4669.htm)
Financial markets have many innate characteristics that investors and speculators really need to understand in order to trade profitably. One of the most important is that all markets, even during secular trends, flow and ebb.
The Red Queen Race (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4668.htm)
Right now it takes a negative savings rate, expanding credit, and excessive government spending just to stand in one spot. If one subtracts imputations and hedonics, and adjusts the GDP by a CPI that better reflects reality, the logical conclusion is that
Fuel - The Catalyst! (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4665.htm)
Whether you are aware of it or not, we are living in a highly inflationary, war cycle. The money supply is surging at an alarming rate and nations continue to out-bid each other for natural resources. In a nutshell, the mad scramble for commodities is on!
The Silver ETF: What's the Deal? (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4666.htm)
So, owning a silver ETF through your IRA account is owning a paper promise (from your broker) that they hold a paper promise (from Barclays) who may hold yet still another paper promise (from J.P. Morgan bullion custodian).
Economic Psycho Babble (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4661.htm)
Economists deal in principles that are universally valid for all time in the realm of human action; they deal in the apodictic laws and limitations governing cause and effect between man and the world around him; they deal in the reality of action.
Data Confirm a March 2 ECB Rate Hike (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4663.htm)
Recent data releases and comments from European Central Bank policymakers confirm the view that the ECB will hike the refi rate 25 basis points next week, to 2.50%.
Who Was Charles H. Dow? (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4664.htm)
Many are familiar with the term "Dow theory," but very few people actually know anything about Mr. Dow himself. In an attempt to give you more background information on Charles Henry Dow and the origins of what has come to be known as Dow's theory.
Turning Back (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4662.htm)
Sometimes it's an exercise in fun rather than futility to turn the pages back and look over what you've written in the past. Though some may view it as a back-patting exercise, it's simply a record of fact.
Yen Carry Trade to Unwind - Market Crash Alert (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4660.htm)
The Japanese economy is strengthening enough to cause an unwinding of the massive YEN carry trade. The last time this happened, there was the LTCM collapse.
The Silver Versus Gold Debate (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4658.htm)
Silver may well outperform gold over the next several years, but, as noted above, we think a good argument can be made for favouring gold-related investments over silver-related investments.
They Only Fix What's Broken (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4659.htm)
On the 15th March 1968, the authorities closed the London gold market for two weeks, following an unprecedented three-day speculative surge of gold buying. When the London gold market re-opened on the 1st of April 1968, it fixed the price in dollars not
E-Economic Newsletter (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4657.htm)
I don't remember the sound of wolves howling in the distance, but it was a darkly inauspicious start to the beginning of the Bernanke reign of monetary terror and pain, as Total Fed Credit at the Federal Reserve shot up by $6.7 billion last week
Fear, the Mother of Violence (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4652.htm)
The immediate and instinctive reaction to fear in financial realms is denial. But this may be ending as the fear that is beginning to be reflected in gold appears visceral. Simply put, it may well be the collective fear of death.
Shades Of The South Sea Bubble (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4653.htm)
As you will see below, history has taught us credit cycle trends are 'the key' to establishing likely peaks in economic activity, with the rate(s) at which margin debt is employed the single best indicator in marking stock market tops bar none.
Weekly Wrap-up: Solid Price Action with Some Negative Divergences (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4654.htm)
While our cyclical outlook calls for a market top to be forming now, there are few signs of significant price deterioration on the indices. That said, we do have a number of warning signs on Momentum and Relative Strength.
Crazy Mans Rant - He's Crazy Like A Fox! (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4655.htm)
Higher interest rates designed to continue to cause foreigners to buy US debt will definitely bring about a recession, unemployment, repossessions of assets like houses and cars from highly indebted consumers.
Investment Commentary (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4674.htm)
Stock indices are stuck in an upside to sideways pattern. Expect more upside before an intermediate term correction starts. The charts in the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 and major European indices look like they have some breadth left to move to the upside.
Just the Facts (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4673.htm)
It is worth noting that gold is demonstrating impressive safe haven qualities, surging $10 today after the attempted terrorist attack on a Saudi oil complex.
Probabilities of Recession (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4672.htm)
This week we look at the possible direction of interest rates both at the long end and the short end. Bottom line: history suggests there is some serious volatility in the future on the long end of the interest rate curve later in the year.
Too Big to Burst (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4667.htm)
It is widely believed that the Federal government has an unofficial policy that some banks and other financial institutions are simply too big to fail. As a result, it is assumed that the government will take any action necessary to ensure that they do no
M3 Outrage (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4671.htm)
For a few months now we've been hearing some voices in the investment and economic communities sound off about the Fed's decision to cease publishing M3 money supply figures. The publicly stated reason given by the Fed for ending the public release of M3
Understanding Nevada's Emerging Gold Plays (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4670.htm)
If Nevada was a separate country, it would rank as the world's #3 gold producer, with most of that production coming from the Carlin trend where over 50,000,000 ounces of gold have already been produced.
Neutral HUI Technicals (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4669.htm)
Financial markets have many innate characteristics that investors and speculators really need to understand in order to trade profitably. One of the most important is that all markets, even during secular trends, flow and ebb.
The Red Queen Race (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4668.htm)
Right now it takes a negative savings rate, expanding credit, and excessive government spending just to stand in one spot. If one subtracts imputations and hedonics, and adjusts the GDP by a CPI that better reflects reality, the logical conclusion is that
Fuel - The Catalyst! (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4665.htm)
Whether you are aware of it or not, we are living in a highly inflationary, war cycle. The money supply is surging at an alarming rate and nations continue to out-bid each other for natural resources. In a nutshell, the mad scramble for commodities is on!
The Silver ETF: What's the Deal? (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4666.htm)
So, owning a silver ETF through your IRA account is owning a paper promise (from your broker) that they hold a paper promise (from Barclays) who may hold yet still another paper promise (from J.P. Morgan bullion custodian).
Economic Psycho Babble (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4661.htm)
Economists deal in principles that are universally valid for all time in the realm of human action; they deal in the apodictic laws and limitations governing cause and effect between man and the world around him; they deal in the reality of action.
Data Confirm a March 2 ECB Rate Hike (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4663.htm)
Recent data releases and comments from European Central Bank policymakers confirm the view that the ECB will hike the refi rate 25 basis points next week, to 2.50%.
Who Was Charles H. Dow? (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4664.htm)
Many are familiar with the term "Dow theory," but very few people actually know anything about Mr. Dow himself. In an attempt to give you more background information on Charles Henry Dow and the origins of what has come to be known as Dow's theory.
Turning Back (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4662.htm)
Sometimes it's an exercise in fun rather than futility to turn the pages back and look over what you've written in the past. Though some may view it as a back-patting exercise, it's simply a record of fact.
Yen Carry Trade to Unwind - Market Crash Alert (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4660.htm)
The Japanese economy is strengthening enough to cause an unwinding of the massive YEN carry trade. The last time this happened, there was the LTCM collapse.
The Silver Versus Gold Debate (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4658.htm)
Silver may well outperform gold over the next several years, but, as noted above, we think a good argument can be made for favouring gold-related investments over silver-related investments.
They Only Fix What's Broken (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4659.htm)
On the 15th March 1968, the authorities closed the London gold market for two weeks, following an unprecedented three-day speculative surge of gold buying. When the London gold market re-opened on the 1st of April 1968, it fixed the price in dollars not
E-Economic Newsletter (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4657.htm)
I don't remember the sound of wolves howling in the distance, but it was a darkly inauspicious start to the beginning of the Bernanke reign of monetary terror and pain, as Total Fed Credit at the Federal Reserve shot up by $6.7 billion last week
Fear, the Mother of Violence (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4652.htm)
The immediate and instinctive reaction to fear in financial realms is denial. But this may be ending as the fear that is beginning to be reflected in gold appears visceral. Simply put, it may well be the collective fear of death.
Shades Of The South Sea Bubble (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4653.htm)
As you will see below, history has taught us credit cycle trends are 'the key' to establishing likely peaks in economic activity, with the rate(s) at which margin debt is employed the single best indicator in marking stock market tops bar none.
Weekly Wrap-up: Solid Price Action with Some Negative Divergences (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4654.htm)
While our cyclical outlook calls for a market top to be forming now, there are few signs of significant price deterioration on the indices. That said, we do have a number of warning signs on Momentum and Relative Strength.
Crazy Mans Rant - He's Crazy Like A Fox! (http://www.safehaven.com/article-4655.htm)
Higher interest rates designed to continue to cause foreigners to buy US debt will definitely bring about a recession, unemployment, repossessions of assets like houses and cars from highly indebted consumers.