Silver inventories

[Nuggethunter]

For the past 3 months Ive been trying to get a rough idea how much physical silver is in private hands.
Ive found buffet bought thousands of ozs in delayed delivery .
Many bags went to the smelter after y2k.

Lets say 30 million people (1/10 the population , USA) brings in 100 ozs to sell when POS hits 50$ , thats 3 billion ozs.
Some sellers will have a lot more, some less.

Any hard data on this would be appreciated.:bandit:

[Large Sarge]

For the past 3 months Ive been trying to get a rough idea how much physical silver is in private hands.
Ive found buffet bought thousands of ozs in delayed delivery .
Many bags went to the smelter after y2k.

Lets say 30 million people (1/10 the population , USA) brings in 100 ozs to sell when POS hits 50$ , thats 3 billion ozs.
Some sellers will have a lot more, some less.

Any hard data on this would be appreciated.:bandit:
I think you 1/10 the population figure is very very highperhaps 5% of the U.S. population owns gold, perhaps 1 % or less owns any amount of silver to be considered an investorJMOmost folks pile into Gold, never even looking at silver...

[hoarder]

I think you 1/10 the population figure is very very highperhaps 5% of the U.S. population owns gold, perhaps 1 % or less owns any amount of silver to be considered an investorJMOmost folks pile into Gold, never even looking at silver...I agree. I doubt more than one percent of the US population owns 100 ounces or more.
Nuggethunter has asked the 67 dollar question. We would all like to know the answer.
Indications of supply are inventories of 90% US silver coins in coin shops and incidents of small buyers driving up the comex as was discussed in another thread yesterday:

http://www.goldismoney.info/forums/t29953-silver-at-978.html

[Au_Ag]

Ive found buffet bought thousands of ozs in delayed delivery ........Any hard data on this would be appreciated.

I was thinking Buffet bought over a hundred million ozs.


Nuggethunter has asked the 67 dollar question. We would all like to know the answer.

I don't believe any hard data exists. Yep, it's question we would all like to know the answer on -

Everything I have seen is guesstimates that vary widely.

One question to ask - At what price point will people in India take it off their arms and bodies and sell it? The most reasonable guestimate I recall brought up that question -

I'm not sure that it is relevant unless those individuals would be exchanging silver for gold.

If you're wearing your savings, what would you exchange your savings for that would be a better form?

Regards

Ken

[Nuggethunter]

I agree au ag, somethuns gotta give, my guess is 1 billion ounces are in the hands of common folks.

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/silver/silvemcs06.pdf

2000 tons of silver was recovered from old scrap in 2005. (how many ozs in a ton) 12 oz troy?

'05 consumption was 7720 tons.


And comex holds 3300 tons (end of '05).

I dont take butlers and the cutee morgans of the world as total truth. Now , we need to start thinking for ourselves, or Im gonna sick Scorpio on ya for being lazy , and that wont be pretty.:captain:

[Au_Ag]

My thoughts always return to The Saudi's being stiffed.

That is an event of monumental proportions.

Look at the spike on the charts and the fall when presumably they walked.

Stands out like a sore thumb.

I believe silver is far less plentiful than the markets and price indicate

I am beginning to believe there's almost none out there that is _readily available.

thinking for myself of course _big grin_

Ken

[Nuggethunter]

1 metric ton = 32,150 ozs

For '05 , World silver fabrication demand and world silver supply run a 1700 ton deficit.

54 million ozs? Is my math right? That is the world silver deficit according to USGS.

[AMforPM]

Yes, I doubt the Saudis would have been stiffed if there was plenty. Buffet probably used some of his in the Enron mess.

Indians are unlikely to sell over price fluctuations. They see that kind of wealth as multigenerational. It is handed down in families and added to, used only when the family must. So rather than what price the question would be in what dire situation would Indians use long term family wealth.

[Ponce Cuba]

100 oz per person? hummmmmmmmmmmmmm I sure as hell would hate to see that many people coming after the silver that I am "holding" for them :bandito:

[Scorpio]

nuggethunter,

I'll tell you why I am such a pain, much of the time.

Firstly, for anyone that has found this place, and in the grand scheme of things, it is a very small number of people, they are special. They are looking for something else and trying to understand what the heck is going on.

In addition, they aren't typically playing gold and silver for the mo. They are coming to it for any number of reasons, but mostly not for quick profits and so on.

It is because of that, that I, and others, take whatever we say or hang our butt out on, quite seriously. Believe me, I am not full of myself, but if I write about a particular stock or something, somebody invests in that stock because they don't do their own DD, and lose their ass, I do take it personally. Even though it means nothing to me one way or the other, it bothers me.

I have been around G&S for a long time, been to the down, and back to here again. The mo players will be here for awhile, then gone again, but I'll still have the physical. We are here for reasons other than get rich quick schemes. We most certainly plan on making some dough along the way, but it is not the primary driver behind GIM.

I won't speak for others, but a very small part of where to start is taking personal responsibility for ones actions. It is wise to pull in information from many sources, but in the end, it is still each person making his or her choices for whatever reasons.

I always want the recently arrived to get some physical for a solid reason. Until you have held it in your hand, you never really understand what the heck some of us are talking about. It is the most conservative way to arrive, and it will certainly introduce persons to a whole new way of looking at things. Unless you have the physical, it is all a digital game with score being kept in fiat by some broker wherever.

For those that are in just for a hoped for fiat gain, I can only hope that some of our insanity can rub off on their world. At least being the genesis of a few independent thoughts of their own, thereby escaping the sheeple herd mentality.

Getting help is easy here, but developing your own rythm and investment style is harder. Many questions are difficult to answer because none of us know the particulars about any one persons situation. For instance, do they have physical, do they have other funds squirreled away and this is play around, or is this their only focus of investments, what is their risk level, hell the list can go on and on. In reality, without knowing the full scope of what one is dealing with, answers presented here are nothing more than one persons opinion (rather than a educated recommendation).

Think of a guy who shows up, wanting to invest his $10K in jr's, and that is all he has in the world, other than a wife and 3 kids at home. He needs to be damn careful to protect his stake. This game is rigged by the big players, and they don't give a whit how many kids you have or if they even have clothes. They are equal opportunity slayers of the little guy.

If a person is high on the risk quotient, they can be playing the babies and the Jr's. Another may have a good portion of their life savings committed to this market, and at that point they need to be more cautious instead of swinging for the fence. The situations can be so different.

Then you have those that will pump a stock, as they recently bought in and are dying to see immediate gains. Hell, we can all be victims of that, truth be told. Seriously though, you don't know if they are going to dump tomorrow, hold long term, whatever. Each opinion is based on a particular bias, and all of us make mistakes.

I would argue that most here want to see each other do very well with their choices.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it..................

[Prometheus]

nuggethunter,

I'll tell you why I am such a pain, much of the time.

Firstly, for anyone that has found this place, and in the grand scheme of things, it is a very small number of people, they are special. They are looking for something else and trying to understand what the heck is going on.

In addition, they aren't typically playing gold and silver for the mo. They are coming to it for any number of reasons, but mostly not for quick profits and so on.

I always want the recently arrived to get some physical for a solid reason. Until you have held it in your hand, you never really understand what the heck some of us are talking about. It is the most conservative way to arrive, and it will certainly introduce persons to a whole new way of looking at things. Unless you have the physical, it is all a digital game with score being kept in fiat by some broker wherever.


Exactly! had I invested in all stocks from the start I'd be playing PM's like the stock market. Moving in and out.. worried (to a point) about day to day moves.

With physical on hand, I know if the price drops to 1 buck an ounce -it's cool. I haven't really lost anything. I still have SOMETHING. If you stock drops from 10 bucks to one buck it'd be oh shit time.

Anyways, thanks again to all the folks here at GIM that make this site possible and get us newbies a little more focused. :beer:

[Elijah]

Thanks Scorpio, I am new here and did come for some of the very reasons you have just outlined. #1 reason being I want to learn more about PM's as all of my past experience has been with stocks and bonds, which only gave me modest returns. I got out of that when I became too disabled to continue working. So my income is limited but all my real property is paid in full and any credit card balance is never carried over. This still leaves me with some money carried over in excess of the past months balance. I have been doing the stocking up thing for several years and now seeing some holes in my strategy, such as no PM's in my holdings. So, I'm buying for the long term and keeping it at a manageable amount, not wanting to over spend my pension plan. I see PM's as the way to go, but not for buying and selling hoping to gain a quick buck. I don't plan to go more than 10-15% into this at least for now.

So that in a nut shell is why I showed up here.

[Nuggethunter]

100 oz per person? hummmmmmmmmmmmmm I sure as hell would hate to see that many people coming after the silver that I am "holding" for them :bandito:

You have more than 100 ozs Mr. Ponce Cuba?

I bought on Saturday at 980 spot, whats pos do today ? everyone together , POS F A L L SSSSSSSSSSSSSSS NOTHIN LIKE HAVEN THE MOVES HUH? :haha:

:getdown: Oh well, I used to be homeless, broke, and now I make 50K$ a year, gotta house in the country, 3 vehicles DODGE DIESEL ohya (all paid for). OWE 86K$ on the house , gotta get that down tho soon. $20,000 into a mortgage paydown would hurt my Silver accumulation program.

And not least of all Silver ; real Money!!!!!!

[Silver Seraph]

Elijah,

From what I understand, even if one invests only 10% of their discretionary money into precious metals, should their be a significant downfall in the economy, your metals will save your portfolio. Of course your stocks would have to be fairly reflective of the markets as a whole, you could lose money on any given single stock. I think the 10% suggested by most "wealth managers" was reasonable for the stock markets between 1980-2000, but now maybe a higher percentage is in order!:beer:

[Elijah]

Elijah,

From what I understand, even if one invests only 10% of their discretionary money into precious metals, should their be a significant downfall in the economy, your metals will save your portfolio. Of course your stocks would have to be fairly reflective of the markets as a whole, you could lose money on any given single stock. I think the 10% suggested by most "wealth managers" was reasonable for the stock markets between 1980-2000, but now maybe a higher percentage is in order!:beer:
My intent was to go up to 25% over time by using the dollar cost averaging method I used when I went into the stock market, via mutual funds. When I became disabled I sold off all my shares and paid off debts because I knew I'd have to rough it for a while until My disability pension started coming through. (It took about two years for short term to end and long term to take over or more for all that to happen.) Now with what my wife makes at her job and my pension, we manage to save a little each month so long as we have no major expense. This savings is the part I'm trying to move into silver as we've built up a good reserve in cash for those emergencies that always seem to crop up. I'm hoping that metals don't go too high before I have a chance to accumulate at least a good start.

I'd go a little faster if it where just up to me, but my wife is much more cautious. She remembers what happened right after we bailed out 20 some years ago just before the bottom fell out of silver. We had several silver dollars we had gotten when you could get it for a buck and sold it for over $20 a piece. Never saw that one coming. She is cautious about buying too much at the price it is today because of what happened back then. I do think it could drop some from what it is now but never to the depth it did back then. Also that from now on we may very well see new highs that won't ever drop any significant amount.

[AMforPM]

The holding physical in your hand thing is really effective. I have been explaining to my friends what is coming, and it is fairly hard to get through. But when I give them a 'good luck' ounce of silver, they always feel how heavy it is and say how pretty it is... real money is obviously money to most people. They react as if it were already at its true worth instead of the rigged low price. Some have not wanted to accept something so valuable. So I say, it is under $10 now, though it WILL be as valuable as you think. You are right about its real value.

It reaches some deeper level. I think it does more good than anything I can say.

So far one friend is moving 10k out of a bank into gold and silver this week and 2 have stocked up. I feel very happy about that, though I hope for more.

[erichops]

my guess is that there is more out there than the butlers of the world think (or say) there is. that is not a knock against silver, just a more sober analysis. that doesn't mean it is all available at todays prices, but the silver held in private hands is probably pretty significant.

you can look at the Silver Institutes annual Silver Survey to get additional information, but there is no reliable data on govt or private silver stocks, it is all a guess. Private parties with large holdings of silver are not going to telling everybody in the world about it.

In 2005, there were 41 million ounces of silver used in coins/metals and 247 million ounces used in jewelry/silverware. Just do the math, multiply 41 million ounces for just the last 20 yrs, that is 800 million ounces alone. Now do the math for the last 20 yrs on jewelry and you get one hell of a lot of silver. Think of how much silver is sitting out there in jewelry, silverware, silver eagles, silver rounds, silver bars, etc. I would bet that most of this silver has not been melted down.

Now, there is no way that all of this silver can quickly and efficiently come to the mkt, but, it will start finding its way to the mkt at some point in the price rise.

I do believe that the silver mkt is vulnerable to a supply shock and a dramatic price rise because although there is a lot of silver in the world, much of it is not in investment grade or industrial grade. And, the fundamentals are strong for silver, no doubt about that. The relentless supply shortfalls have to be eating up the excess inventories. There are lots of good arguments for silver. But, the idea that is "rare" is simply not true, there are billions of ounces of it around in jewelry,silverware, old govt coinage, rounds, coins/medal, that type of thing.

One thing to watch to get an idea of how much investment grade silver there is is to watch how the silver ETF plays out. Many have gone on record as saying that there is simply not enough silver to fund it; if it gets approved and is funded, then that tells you there is more around then what some of the experts have gone on record saying there is.

[GREENSILVERHORN]

My guess is most of it is at the junkyard.

It is not easily recoverable.

Probably easier to mine.

Nobody on my street has any, except in their refrigerator, or cell phone.

[Jasper]

The holding physical in your hand thing is really effective. I have been explaining to my friends what is coming, and it is fairly hard to get through. But when I give them a 'good luck' ounce of silver, they always feel how heavy it is and say how pretty it is... real money is obviously money to most people. They react as if it were already at its true worth instead of the rigged low price. Some have not wanted to accept something so valuable. . . .

It reaches some deeper level.

Very true. The trouble is that most people have never even seen a 1 oz pm coin. But once they've seen one they're hooked.

I think we should send Ponce up in a helicopter to shower America with some of his spares. That ought to see the price really rocket!

Maybe the DUCK could help him!

:clap2:

[Nuggethunter]

nuggethunter,

I'll tell you why I am such a pain, much of the time.

Firstly, for anyone that has found this place, and in the grand scheme of things, it is a very small number of people, they are special. They are looking for something else and trying to understand what the heck is going on.

In addition, they aren't typically playing gold and silver for the mo. They are coming to it for any number of reasons, but mostly not for quick profits and so on.

It is because of that, that I, and others, take whatever we say or hang our butt out on, quite seriously. Believe me, I am not full of myself, but if I write about a particular stock or something, somebody invests in that stock because they don't do their own DD, and lose their ass, I do take it personally. Even though it means nothing to me one way or the other, it bothers me.

I have been around G&S for a long time, been to the down, and back to here again. The mo players will be here for awhile, then gone again, but I'll still have the physical. We are here for reasons other than get rich quick schemes. We most certainly plan on making some dough along the way, but it is not the primary driver behind GIM.

I won't speak for others, but a very small part of where to start is taking personal responsibility for ones actions. It is wise to pull in information from many sources, but in the end, it is still each person making his or her choices for whatever reasons.

I always want the recently arrived to get some physical for a solid reason. Until you have held it in your hand, you never really understand what the heck some of us are talking about. It is the most conservative way to arrive, and it will certainly introduce persons to a whole new way of looking at things. Unless you have the physical, it is all a digital game with score being kept in fiat by some broker wherever.

For those that are in just for a hoped for fiat gain, I can only hope that some of our insanity can rub off on their world. At least being the genesis of a few independent thoughts of their own, thereby escaping the sheeple herd mentality.

Getting help is easy here, but developing your own rythm and investment style is harder. Many questions are difficult to answer because none of us know the particulars about any one persons situation. For instance, do they have physical, do they have other funds squirreled away and this is play around, or is this their only focus of investments, what is their risk level, hell the list can go on and on. In reality, without knowing the full scope of what one is dealing with, answers presented here are nothing more than one persons opinion (rather than a educated recommendation).

Think of a guy who shows up, wanting to invest his $10K in jr's, and that is all he has in the world, other than a wife and 3 kids at home. He needs to be damn careful to protect his stake. This game is rigged by the big players, and they don't give a whit how many kids you have or if they even have clothes. They are equal opportunity slayers of the little guy.

If a person is high on the risk quotient, they can be playing the babies and the Jr's. Another may have a good portion of their life savings committed to this market, and at that point they need to be more cautious instead of swinging for the fence. The situations can be so different.

Then you have those that will pump a stock, as they recently bought in and are dying to see immediate gains. Hell, we can all be victims of that, truth be told. Seriously though, you don't know if they are going to dump tomorrow, hold long term, whatever. Each opinion is based on a particular bias, and all of us make mistakes.

I would argue that most here want to see each other do very well with their choices.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it..................

--------------------------------------------------------------
Put this one in the GIM Hall of Fame for its subject matter. Required reading for rookies;

:congrats:

PMs in hand give me a sense of real financial and social security. Of course with 50% of my wealth in PMs I would like to see 10% annual gains. Or to the moon for that matter.

GLTA

[Elijah]

Help, you guys got me addicted and I can't stop. Do you have a 12 step program I can join?

[GoldWampum]

Help, you guys got me addicted and I can't stop. Do you have a 12 step program I can join?

Step One: Buy Silver
Step Two: Buy more
Steps 3-11: Repeat steps 1 and 2.
Step 12: Buy some gold occasionally.

Hope that helps Elijah. :beer:

[AMforPM]

Help, you guys got me addicted and I can't stop. Do you have a 12 step program I can join?

1. Buy gold.
2. Buy silver.
3. Buy more gold.
4. Buy more silver.
5. Admire your stash.

aww, enough. :rofl:

[Nuggethunter]

Help, you guys got me addicted and I can't stop. Do you have a 12 step program I can join?

You have a plain case of GOLD FEVER. Gonna have to learn to live with it Son.


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[Elijah]

I should have known better than to ask for a 12 step guide! :haha:

I have 5 coins that should be on their way from Littleton's. I checked my charge card account and they have been charged. Now I'll be watching the mail everyday, waiting its arrival. I have some silver coins and rounds I can look at and hold. I have some little vials with raw gold that I panned. Love the shine. :smile: All these steps do help, but somehow I keep thinking I should head in to the coin shop, after the mail goes of course, and buy a few more silver rounds and eagles. Lets see I have some 90% I can get out and fondle. How am I doing so far?:banana:

At least I've found an understanding support group.:ARMS1: