IrishGold
10-21-2003, 10:24 AM
I'm sending this along to y'all knowing that not all of you are gold or silver stock investors, numismatists, or even coin dealers for that matter. In brief, our recipients are quite varied in interests and pursuits. But, Jason's article (link below) on silver stocks straddles several areas which broach all of us. Granted he takes quite a swipe at numismatic silver as silver bugs are apt to do, as are gold bugs antagonistic towards say $20 Double Eagles. Jason means well, and I know where he's coming from, but just as his political naivety on Red China surfaces, his understanding silver and numismatics is unintentionally deficient, too.
Numismatists and students of gold and silver coinage will know that those American gold eagles not taken by FDR or squirreled away by a few 'un-patriotic' Americans were shoveled away to Europe by the boatload. Numismatic gold had little attraction for American collectors (Europeans were on top of it!) until the early 70s when the gold price became untethered from the fixed price of $35. Numismatic gold continued to soar in value even after 1974 when Americans were again permitted to own bullion. Those same American double eagles, $10 Indians, and $20 Saints, have proved to have given a better return than gold bullion golds, K-rands, for instance.
Numismatic silver has been something else again! I've been in this 'thing' now for nigh over 45 years, and remember well as our family pulled dimes, quarters and halves from circulation when the US Govt had squandered a good deal of their 9 billion silver ounce hoard by 1964, and suspended the minting of silver coins for general circulation. Gresham's Law in action, bad driving out good. BUT, my real good fortune while an air freight salesman in Boston was the gobbling up of uncirculated Mercury dimes by the roll whenever I came across them at coin dealers in the Boston metropolitan area.Those rolls dated in the 1940s that I was lucky enough to find for a buck or $1.25 a coin are now worth in the hundreds of dollars! I was getting Walkers, too, but those I pretty much sold off in the great numismatic price run-up in 1979-1980.
The point of all this prologue to Jason's work is to supplement what he's doing, not harangue his efforts. He's become a master at determining values or lack thereof in silver mining prospects.
Here's what'll happen in the next silver price blow-off to who knows what price. Fifty dollars an ounce? $100? $350? Who can say? BUT, this I can say is that newbies wanting to get in on the plunder will go for what they know first - - US SILVER and HALF DOLLARS. I'm talking the circulated ones. You know the 90% pre-1965 'junk'. Circulated Morgan & Peace dollars have a premium already. Average circulateds for these are now down to about $6 or $7, depending whether you're buying or selling and the dealer. Make no mistake about it, those same US circulated silver dollars were going for $30 at the peak in 1980! Many US halves disappeared in the big melt of 1980. Most people, myself included, incorrectly believed that the dates and issues with the highest mintages were the ones to dump, and would not be missed in the melting. Not so! Some of those "common" issues now command premiums over dates with lesser total mintages.
You see, it was not in the numismatic appeal that prompted silver buyers to acquire silver coins, but it was what THEY KNEW AND WERE FAMILIAR WITH! This new and unexpected demand from another outside source drove up the prices for numismatists as they came to realize that the coins they were seeking for their collections were getting harder and harder to locate, and were priced out of reach for many.
Understand now, and the next time around US half dollars are going to go to a significant premium over their silver content. There are fewer of them, and they are much easier to count and store than dimes or quarters.
That is why if you can get any late dated (1960s) Franklin halves for a small premium over silver's melt value - - buy them with both feet! A roll of twenty UNCIRCULATED 1963 Franklin halves will run around $70. That's about $3.50 per coin. At $5 silver melt, value is about half that. Figure about $1.75 melt per coin at 72% of $5 spot silver. Now think about it - - those same uncirculated Mercury dime rolls that I was hoarding at about $1- $1.25 per coin was nearly TEN TIMES SILVER MELT VALUE @$1.29/ounce (maybe it was a little higher in the early 70s). Coin collectors have not caught onto the multi-year silver deficit.....yet.
Jason's got the groove on silver mining and I urge y'all to give his article a go............coin collectors and investors aren't there yet either!!
And another coin tip - follow the going prices for average circulated "junk" silver coin rolls on eBay. When you begin to see those prices move up with the silver price you'll know the race is on! Too late, your train has left the station.
Bill
From: Jason Hommel [mailto:bibleprophesy@yahoo.com]
Friends,
My weekly article can be found at the
following urls.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1066616542.php (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1066616542.php)
http://www.minersmanual.com/silverarticle.php?SA_ID=82 (http://www.minersmanual.com/silverarticle.php?SA_ID=82)
This week's report includes an important tip on how you can set up and
track all my silver stocks for free at yahoo.com.
Also, it contains new commentary on the relative size of the silver
market to the paper markets, and commentary on China.
Sincerely,
Jason Hommel
Numismatists and students of gold and silver coinage will know that those American gold eagles not taken by FDR or squirreled away by a few 'un-patriotic' Americans were shoveled away to Europe by the boatload. Numismatic gold had little attraction for American collectors (Europeans were on top of it!) until the early 70s when the gold price became untethered from the fixed price of $35. Numismatic gold continued to soar in value even after 1974 when Americans were again permitted to own bullion. Those same American double eagles, $10 Indians, and $20 Saints, have proved to have given a better return than gold bullion golds, K-rands, for instance.
Numismatic silver has been something else again! I've been in this 'thing' now for nigh over 45 years, and remember well as our family pulled dimes, quarters and halves from circulation when the US Govt had squandered a good deal of their 9 billion silver ounce hoard by 1964, and suspended the minting of silver coins for general circulation. Gresham's Law in action, bad driving out good. BUT, my real good fortune while an air freight salesman in Boston was the gobbling up of uncirculated Mercury dimes by the roll whenever I came across them at coin dealers in the Boston metropolitan area.Those rolls dated in the 1940s that I was lucky enough to find for a buck or $1.25 a coin are now worth in the hundreds of dollars! I was getting Walkers, too, but those I pretty much sold off in the great numismatic price run-up in 1979-1980.
The point of all this prologue to Jason's work is to supplement what he's doing, not harangue his efforts. He's become a master at determining values or lack thereof in silver mining prospects.
Here's what'll happen in the next silver price blow-off to who knows what price. Fifty dollars an ounce? $100? $350? Who can say? BUT, this I can say is that newbies wanting to get in on the plunder will go for what they know first - - US SILVER and HALF DOLLARS. I'm talking the circulated ones. You know the 90% pre-1965 'junk'. Circulated Morgan & Peace dollars have a premium already. Average circulateds for these are now down to about $6 or $7, depending whether you're buying or selling and the dealer. Make no mistake about it, those same US circulated silver dollars were going for $30 at the peak in 1980! Many US halves disappeared in the big melt of 1980. Most people, myself included, incorrectly believed that the dates and issues with the highest mintages were the ones to dump, and would not be missed in the melting. Not so! Some of those "common" issues now command premiums over dates with lesser total mintages.
You see, it was not in the numismatic appeal that prompted silver buyers to acquire silver coins, but it was what THEY KNEW AND WERE FAMILIAR WITH! This new and unexpected demand from another outside source drove up the prices for numismatists as they came to realize that the coins they were seeking for their collections were getting harder and harder to locate, and were priced out of reach for many.
Understand now, and the next time around US half dollars are going to go to a significant premium over their silver content. There are fewer of them, and they are much easier to count and store than dimes or quarters.
That is why if you can get any late dated (1960s) Franklin halves for a small premium over silver's melt value - - buy them with both feet! A roll of twenty UNCIRCULATED 1963 Franklin halves will run around $70. That's about $3.50 per coin. At $5 silver melt, value is about half that. Figure about $1.75 melt per coin at 72% of $5 spot silver. Now think about it - - those same uncirculated Mercury dime rolls that I was hoarding at about $1- $1.25 per coin was nearly TEN TIMES SILVER MELT VALUE @$1.29/ounce (maybe it was a little higher in the early 70s). Coin collectors have not caught onto the multi-year silver deficit.....yet.
Jason's got the groove on silver mining and I urge y'all to give his article a go............coin collectors and investors aren't there yet either!!
And another coin tip - follow the going prices for average circulated "junk" silver coin rolls on eBay. When you begin to see those prices move up with the silver price you'll know the race is on! Too late, your train has left the station.
Bill
From: Jason Hommel [mailto:bibleprophesy@yahoo.com]
Friends,
My weekly article can be found at the
following urls.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1066616542.php (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1066616542.php)
http://www.minersmanual.com/silverarticle.php?SA_ID=82 (http://www.minersmanual.com/silverarticle.php?SA_ID=82)
This week's report includes an important tip on how you can set up and
track all my silver stocks for free at yahoo.com.
Also, it contains new commentary on the relative size of the silver
market to the paper markets, and commentary on China.
Sincerely,
Jason Hommel