Pandagold Banned
04-27-2003, 08:10 PM
Before, I start, let me say my posts are primarily designed to make you (and I) think, not always about something new, but often about things you (we) tend to forget. The ubiquitous, around the clock media, today, can blind, deafen, or at best, dull your senses, if you are not careful. BEWARE!
As indicated I also use these posts to focus MY thoughts, and remind me of what I need to be doing, and paying attention to, to make this game PAY!
STOP being side-tracked by media hype. If it isn't some war, terrorist threat, or virus running wild, they will find something. Trust them - (to find something, that is).
These events always seem momentous at the time, so it is easy to be ensnared. But, invariably they get blown out of proportion, and even in the worst case, a mere cursory glance through history will show that the world has coped with all these 'disasters', and 'end of the world' scenarios before - and SURVIVED!
Just know (and if you don't yet - then decide) where YOU are going, and set YOUR course. If you don't have a destination, how will you know when you have arrived?
I am not a 'religious' person, that is I do not belong to any particular religion, though I believe in a Creator - a sort of 'Universal Intelligence'. I believe we were given 'free will' so we are NOT robots.
One man can believe that gold is going to rocket to the moon, and act upon that belief, and another may think that it is going to dive to the pits, and so act. Another may believe it is just going to languish and go nowhere. (And, yet another may not give a damn, and show no interest.)
One of them is going to be right. Or, all of them may be right for a while, or appear to be, as it twists and turns in an effort to throw you off scent.
But the decision, is YOURS, and YOURS alone!
In a well read book which, according to surviving early editions, goes back to around two millenniums, it is stated that a certain man had a mission in life to teach, in fact he was a rabbi - a rather controversial one from the mainstream.
A theme of His ( I give the capital out of deference to those who follow His religion) message is that we should 'Fear not'. He had identified one of our greatest weaknesses, one that some people can, and do, play on to take advantage of us, and deflect us from our course in life - FEAR.
Today, we have something which people just a few years ago would have almost given anything for - the internet. The information available to us at the click of an icon is unbelievable. Much (not all by any means) of this information is factual - and is FREE.
No, we can't see where gold is going - where it will be tomorrow. But we can see where it has been going for enough years for us to make reasonable judgements - if we stop listening to over enthusiastic hype, or negativity.
While economics is NOT a science (though it may wish to be) as nothing can stand up to empirical study (cannot be manipulated), we can apply the substance of Newton's laws of motion sufficiently to form a reasonable conclusion as to direction.
On the charts we have time, motion, and direction, and we also have volume to indicate power of thrust.
In Newton's first law, he indicates (simplified) that a moving object (share price in our case) will continue in its direction, and at the same speed, until acted upon by an 'unbalanced' force.
Now remember, we are applying here a scientific law to a non scientific subject so don't be too precise in definition, or application.
By studying the past direction over a period of time in the charts, plus volume and money flow, we can, helped by our senses, get a good idea of where things are headed.
Let me explain this 'helped by our senses'. Governments aided by media have a habit of telling us that the economy is sound, when nothing could be further from the truth.
We see shops closing in the Mall (what kinds of shops)? Which shops are thriving - always busy when we go in? We hear from people we know that they are unemployed and having a hard time finding a job. Factories, and other places of employment are going out of business. The airports are almost empty, compared with the last time we visited. Prices are coming down, or going up - whichever is the case.
The housing market is booming? Is it? Is that 'for sale' sign outside your neighbours staying there a long time? Or, was it up only a couple of days before the house was sold. Notice others, not just one. Estate agencies will ALWAYS be optimistic. Use YOUR SENSES! Be alert to what you see with your own eyes.
The government may be printing billions of dollars, but where are those billions flowing? They don't just hang around in limbo, they ALWAYS flow somewhere, and their direction will ALWAYS show up in the charts.
The long term direction will indicate long term trend. A change in the long term is indicated only when certain 'resistance' lines of the short term trend are breached and held.
Isn't it a wonderfully exciting game? Really it is if you get into it and enjoy it, because
YOU are 'in the driving seat'. And it can be VERY rewarding.
Here's one or two little facts for you to think about. Two hundred years ago, yes, in 1804 the population of the entire world got that - ENTIRE WORLD, was one billion, that is less than the population of China today.
The population of the known world during the Roman Empire, most of which that empire dominated, was 500 million - LESS THAN HALF THE POPULATION of TODAY'S CHINA. The whole world population less than half of one country existing today.
The world today is adding about 72 million a year - that is about the same as the combined populations of France, Greece, and Sweden - EVERY YEAR.
Don't you feel that these Central banks need to unload some of their hoard of this barbaric, though unique, relic, if only to maintain the jewellery business?
If the price rose too high, people could not afford it.( Demand in India, the world's, so far, biggest user, always backs off when the price goes too high.) It could not be used as such, and would just lie in vaults, or stay in the ground.
You may think that you can't make money investing in gold shares If you do, WHY? You could have bought Goldcorp's (GG) shares for around $2 about two years ago - just a little over TWO years ago They will cost you now - over $10 today, in spite of the fact they have come down a little. And Goldcorp is just one.
So what do I deduce from the information available. I see that gold, according to the charts is still in what has been a very long down trend - as is silver. It is still in a short term bull, but will need to break some resistance levels before one could say that it has broken the long downtrend.
However, it has shown that money can be made in short term trends, whatever the situation is.
Distortions can occur because there is a parallel gold market to the spot, which is the
'paper' derivatives. There is no limit to what you can do with paper just so long as the underlying commodity is in greater supply than its demand. An accepted 'rule' (not law) in economics is that prices rise when the demand is greater than the supply (and vice versa).
But this has to be true usable demand of the physical supply. At present, because of how a country's political and economic set up was in the past, Central Banks had accrued large reserves, which they are unloading onto the market
Times have changed, whether we like it or not. A lot of this stored supply is available both to meet demand, or stave off any hoarding. I do not believe we have the true figures of either the world's supply or demand so I am not going to quote them. Accepted ones for the consumption of the masses are available and are bandied about from time to time.
I do know this, whatever the derivative market does, or would like to do, if ever the real demand gets close to the available supply, the price will surely rise. And should it continue, those resistance levels will be breached.
I believe that silver will point the way. I look for the day it will break over $5 and HOLD.
At the same time I want to see the US dollar at, or below parity with the euro (as of now).
You have a mind, you have FREE WILL! USE IT!
'Bon Chance', Pandagold
As indicated I also use these posts to focus MY thoughts, and remind me of what I need to be doing, and paying attention to, to make this game PAY!
STOP being side-tracked by media hype. If it isn't some war, terrorist threat, or virus running wild, they will find something. Trust them - (to find something, that is).
These events always seem momentous at the time, so it is easy to be ensnared. But, invariably they get blown out of proportion, and even in the worst case, a mere cursory glance through history will show that the world has coped with all these 'disasters', and 'end of the world' scenarios before - and SURVIVED!
Just know (and if you don't yet - then decide) where YOU are going, and set YOUR course. If you don't have a destination, how will you know when you have arrived?
I am not a 'religious' person, that is I do not belong to any particular religion, though I believe in a Creator - a sort of 'Universal Intelligence'. I believe we were given 'free will' so we are NOT robots.
One man can believe that gold is going to rocket to the moon, and act upon that belief, and another may think that it is going to dive to the pits, and so act. Another may believe it is just going to languish and go nowhere. (And, yet another may not give a damn, and show no interest.)
One of them is going to be right. Or, all of them may be right for a while, or appear to be, as it twists and turns in an effort to throw you off scent.
But the decision, is YOURS, and YOURS alone!
In a well read book which, according to surviving early editions, goes back to around two millenniums, it is stated that a certain man had a mission in life to teach, in fact he was a rabbi - a rather controversial one from the mainstream.
A theme of His ( I give the capital out of deference to those who follow His religion) message is that we should 'Fear not'. He had identified one of our greatest weaknesses, one that some people can, and do, play on to take advantage of us, and deflect us from our course in life - FEAR.
Today, we have something which people just a few years ago would have almost given anything for - the internet. The information available to us at the click of an icon is unbelievable. Much (not all by any means) of this information is factual - and is FREE.
No, we can't see where gold is going - where it will be tomorrow. But we can see where it has been going for enough years for us to make reasonable judgements - if we stop listening to over enthusiastic hype, or negativity.
While economics is NOT a science (though it may wish to be) as nothing can stand up to empirical study (cannot be manipulated), we can apply the substance of Newton's laws of motion sufficiently to form a reasonable conclusion as to direction.
On the charts we have time, motion, and direction, and we also have volume to indicate power of thrust.
In Newton's first law, he indicates (simplified) that a moving object (share price in our case) will continue in its direction, and at the same speed, until acted upon by an 'unbalanced' force.
Now remember, we are applying here a scientific law to a non scientific subject so don't be too precise in definition, or application.
By studying the past direction over a period of time in the charts, plus volume and money flow, we can, helped by our senses, get a good idea of where things are headed.
Let me explain this 'helped by our senses'. Governments aided by media have a habit of telling us that the economy is sound, when nothing could be further from the truth.
We see shops closing in the Mall (what kinds of shops)? Which shops are thriving - always busy when we go in? We hear from people we know that they are unemployed and having a hard time finding a job. Factories, and other places of employment are going out of business. The airports are almost empty, compared with the last time we visited. Prices are coming down, or going up - whichever is the case.
The housing market is booming? Is it? Is that 'for sale' sign outside your neighbours staying there a long time? Or, was it up only a couple of days before the house was sold. Notice others, not just one. Estate agencies will ALWAYS be optimistic. Use YOUR SENSES! Be alert to what you see with your own eyes.
The government may be printing billions of dollars, but where are those billions flowing? They don't just hang around in limbo, they ALWAYS flow somewhere, and their direction will ALWAYS show up in the charts.
The long term direction will indicate long term trend. A change in the long term is indicated only when certain 'resistance' lines of the short term trend are breached and held.
Isn't it a wonderfully exciting game? Really it is if you get into it and enjoy it, because
YOU are 'in the driving seat'. And it can be VERY rewarding.
Here's one or two little facts for you to think about. Two hundred years ago, yes, in 1804 the population of the entire world got that - ENTIRE WORLD, was one billion, that is less than the population of China today.
The population of the known world during the Roman Empire, most of which that empire dominated, was 500 million - LESS THAN HALF THE POPULATION of TODAY'S CHINA. The whole world population less than half of one country existing today.
The world today is adding about 72 million a year - that is about the same as the combined populations of France, Greece, and Sweden - EVERY YEAR.
Don't you feel that these Central banks need to unload some of their hoard of this barbaric, though unique, relic, if only to maintain the jewellery business?
If the price rose too high, people could not afford it.( Demand in India, the world's, so far, biggest user, always backs off when the price goes too high.) It could not be used as such, and would just lie in vaults, or stay in the ground.
You may think that you can't make money investing in gold shares If you do, WHY? You could have bought Goldcorp's (GG) shares for around $2 about two years ago - just a little over TWO years ago They will cost you now - over $10 today, in spite of the fact they have come down a little. And Goldcorp is just one.
So what do I deduce from the information available. I see that gold, according to the charts is still in what has been a very long down trend - as is silver. It is still in a short term bull, but will need to break some resistance levels before one could say that it has broken the long downtrend.
However, it has shown that money can be made in short term trends, whatever the situation is.
Distortions can occur because there is a parallel gold market to the spot, which is the
'paper' derivatives. There is no limit to what you can do with paper just so long as the underlying commodity is in greater supply than its demand. An accepted 'rule' (not law) in economics is that prices rise when the demand is greater than the supply (and vice versa).
But this has to be true usable demand of the physical supply. At present, because of how a country's political and economic set up was in the past, Central Banks had accrued large reserves, which they are unloading onto the market
Times have changed, whether we like it or not. A lot of this stored supply is available both to meet demand, or stave off any hoarding. I do not believe we have the true figures of either the world's supply or demand so I am not going to quote them. Accepted ones for the consumption of the masses are available and are bandied about from time to time.
I do know this, whatever the derivative market does, or would like to do, if ever the real demand gets close to the available supply, the price will surely rise. And should it continue, those resistance levels will be breached.
I believe that silver will point the way. I look for the day it will break over $5 and HOLD.
At the same time I want to see the US dollar at, or below parity with the euro (as of now).
You have a mind, you have FREE WILL! USE IT!
'Bon Chance', Pandagold