$INDU

[Curtman]

Originally Posted by andial

Now is the time to go short. I have spoken. Well typed actually.

Short what? I have just closed my shorts late Thursday and went long the miners Late Thursday and Friday. You may see some pull down Monday if there is heavy selling in the markets but barring the miners getting caught in the downdraft I think it is a safe play, certainly worth the risk.

Shorting the riets and financials are probably OK.

I am not about to go short the metals after that feeble attempt to slap them down last week was rejected.

[andial]

I'm going short the Dow or S+P using DXD or SDS, not shorting metals or miners. I have been following Sparky's charts for awhile and think we are matching the seventies.

[Sparky]

Originally Posted by Curtman

...
You may see some pull down Monday if there is heavy selling in the markets but barring the miners getting caught in the downdraft I think it is a safe play, certainly worth the risk.
...

Why do you think the miners wouldn't get caught in the downdraft? They seem to every time. True, they recover earlier and outpace on the upside. But they do suffer that early pain.

[andial]

Now we see if this down draft is the same as 1974's or it drops further.

[Sparky]

Updated 10/23/09. Now moving out on a limb.

[andial]

Talk about an opportunity presenting itself.

[optionT]

Just stumbled into this great thread with great charts! Just sold a bunch of vertical calls on the RUT for Nov about a week and a half ago. It does feel like we are hanging in the balance.

[andial]

Hey optionT.

You Tube

You Tube

[Sparky]

Updated through 10/30/09.

[Curtman]

http://www.opalesque.com/podcast/oth...9-11-02OCB.mp3

[Curtman]

Interesting pattern here don't ya think?

[Curtman]

Charts and Fundamentals

[Sparky]

Updated through 11/6/09. Starting to deviate to the north.

[bjgnome]

new high in indu, but neg divergence...

[xinkid]

I'm not shorting.

[andial]

I'm back to even on my SDS after being up over 6 percent. But I am still short the S+P. But I have long positions in metal stocks plus some others.

[optionT]

Bought back the last of my vertical calls! It was a nice month, waiting for my next move. I don't like anything to risky......gotta be able to at night! Happy trading a good luck to all.

optionT

[Curtman]

Bond failure coming up, 10 & 30 looking ready to go over wall.

[andial]

This isn't bond friendly news, but who knows theses days.

Federal deficit sets October record of $176.4B


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The federal deficit hit a record for October as the new budget year began where the old one ended: with the government awash in red ink.

Economists worry that if such deficits continue it could push up interest rates, further dragging on the fragile economic recovery.

The Treasury Department said Thursday that the deficit for October totaled $176.4 billion, even higher than the $150 billion imbalance that economists expected.

The deficit for the 2009 budget year, which ended on Sept. 30, set an all-time record in dollar terms of $1.42 trillion. That was $958 billion above the 2008 deficit, the previous record holder.

October was the 13th straight month to show a monthly deficit -- another record. It was the fifth-largest monthly deficit ever.

The imbalance came mostly from lower receipts of individual and corporate taxes. Receipts were $135.3 billion, a 17.9 percent drop from last October.

Spending dipped 2.7 percent to $311.7 billion. Last October's outlays were inflated by the $33 billion spent on the first round of financial bailouts at the peak of the financial crisis.

The Obama administration expects this year's deficit to reach $1.5 trillion. That would make it the third straight record annual deficit.

In relation to the overall economy, the 2009 deficit was 9.9 percent of the gross domestic product. That was the highest level since the World War II-era deficit hit 21.5 percent of GDP in 1945.

The devastating effects of the country's worst recession since the 1930s and the government's efforts to stabilize the financial system with a $700 billion bank bailout fund and a $787 billion economic stimulus program drove the 2009 deficit.

The administration projects the deficit will remain above $1 trillion in 2011. In fact, according to the estimates it made in August, the deficit will never drop below $739 billion over the next decade.

So far, the government has been able to borrow to finance the soaring deficits at low rates because the recession pushed interest rates down and the Federal Reserve has worked to keep them low in an effort to stimulate a rebound.

But the concern is that government borrowing at such levels will start to push interest rates higher as the economy begins to recover, making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow the money they need. Another worry is that foreigners could become spooked by the size of all the deficits and cut back on their purchases of Treasury debt.

China, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, has expressed concerns about the size of the U.S. deficits, prompting administration officials to issue repeated pledges that it will start to tackle the deficits as soon as the recovery is on more sustained footing.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, on a visit to Tokyo on Wednesday, told reporters that "as growth recovers and strengthens, we're going to bring our fiscal positions back to a sustainable balance."

Republicans have attacked the administration for failing to put forward what they consider a credible plan to deal with the soaring deficits. That debate is expected to intensify in coming weeks as Congress is faced with the need to raise the government's debt limit, currently at $12.1 trillion. The administration said last week it expects to hit the current limit in December.



http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Federa...&asset=&ccode=