stock charts mostly

[astudent]

Eatbeef,

Thanks for mentioning that.

I was aware of that, but thanks just the same.

The really screwy thing is, in my view, if they had issued more shares and that caused the etf to trade down to nav, then ung would have broken ranks with gaz and dropped a lot more in here than gaz. That is what I don't get. At least some of what I don't get anyway, lol.

[eat_beef]

Part of it has to do with their new model. It may or may not track NG as well as the old one. I'd REALLY like to buy UNG, but I'm not touching it until this either settles, or at least looks like it will settle.

It reminds me of the old days when Goldcorp lost McEwen then started hedging. It really ticked me off as it removed the simple, no brainer, "I think gold's going up" bet. Oh well, if it were easy women and children would be doing it.

[astudent]

GAZ looks like the better of the two in here given what is going on with UNG. jmo
GAZ is close to nav. But it is an etn like dxo and not an etf.
May be easier to hold GAZ without having to bother with the extra inside dynamics going on with UNG.

I think when gas turns and the trend changes both UNG and GAZ will go up as well.

[astudent]

fwiw

I have THE low for UNG at 10.65

Giving it a range of 30 cents either way, puts the target area at 10.95-10.35

Doubt it will do it today

Anytime over the next two weeks the low should be put in, imo

The chart has kept me out of this waiting on it for 6 to eight months

And the same chart is now saying to buy as indicated above. That is what I am likely to do regardless of the overhanging news...

[astudent]

The danger in UNG from my perspective............

I have UNG in an ending diagonal as previously shown

If that is wrong UNG could be in a third wave of a third wave down

If this is a third wave down and is 1.618 times the first wave, this current wave will end somewheres around 8 bucks a share. And that would not be THE end of the decline. as there would still be the 5th down to go.

Maybe I am just getting chicken, but my confidence in the ending diagonal being accurate is waning.

I may wait and see what kind of rally comes out of what I think is going to be some type of low Monday assuming gas is down in the morning. Or I may wait for it to just plain hit the lower line in the ending diagonal, or hit the parallel of the top line, so the channel down would be parallel rather than a falling wedge type.

If it hits the 10.70's today on the way down I will likely buy however.

This is pretty hairy stuff............

[astudent]

Looks like next Monday for the low on UNG, maybe THE low, 5 days from now

thought it would be today

[astudent]

Nothing new on the chart...........

an up to date version of the ending diagonal

Each leg has 3 waves

each leg has time relationships in them

If yesterday was the end of the rally before the last leg of the last leg down started...........

and..........

If the second part of wave "e" is half as long as the first part time wise the low would be on Tuesday instead of Monday.

Tuesday is the first day of September btw.

Should be interesting..................

There was "dark cloud cover" on todays candlestick, if confirmed would be bearish.

[astudent]

Chart of UNG

[astudent]

The support trendline on the falling wedge/ending diagonal was hit almost exactly to the penny today. On the hourly, I believe it was hit to the penny.

I am long at 10.75 from the first hour of trading.

I put the overwhelming technicals ahead of the fundamentals(nav), and it is fair to say I put my money where my mouth was/is.

Did not want to play for the exact point on the line in case it stayed short of the line by a bit.

I think this is THE low in here or extremely close to it.

UNG should rally back to the neighborhood of 17. Maybe higher, but at least to that area.

We will see what happens.

The fundamentals on UNG are so clear, so obvious, and so overwhelming from the common thought point of view, the fundamentals should Obviously rule the day. I disagree with that, and think the overwhelming technicals will win out.

[Victor]

Hope you got stopped out as today is looking a bit ugly. The NAV issue with this thing is killing it and it could go quite a bit lower if that narrows.

[astudent]

This is going to turn at any time in my view. Am not going to sell in here.

Not advocating anyone buy or sell, just expressing my thoughts on here. no margin.

[astudent]

THE message here..........

Thinking of trying to catch a falling knife?

DO NOT do it....

[astudent]

there is a weekly gap on the ung chart between 11 and about 11.20

every weekly gap on the chart has been filled to my recollection except this one and the gap in the low 60's, the first week down.

[astudent]

UNG..........

I am "all" in

no margin for now

If my wife new what was going on in the gas market she would be a nervous wreck..

ssoo I I ww oo nn t ttteeelll herr forr awwwhillee(lol)

[astudent]

It is clear, by my interpretation anyway, GE only has 3 waves down to this point. The 5th down may or may not go lower than the third as the third is pretty far down there. Wherever it goes there should be one more wave down.

[Spectrism]

Originally Posted by astudent

It is clear, by my interpretation anyway, GE only has 3 waves down to this point. The 5th down may or may not go lower than the third as the third is pretty far down there. Wherever it goes there should be one more wave down.

I don't trust any of the rules anymore. GE is in the elite club and has special deals like some of the big bankers. The way it will unfold will probably be completely unexpected.

[astudent]

fwiw

You need not trust the "rules"

IF it goes down there, especially to a new low, it is a buy.

It is also possible, and I just saw this, 5 waves down are already complete.

Although subjectively, I prefer the count in the first chart, the count in this chart could be correct.

the 3rd wave in this chart is longer in both time and price than the first. Rather than the 3rd wave being extended which is most common, in this chart the 5th wave is extended.

again, fwiw

I expect nat gas at some point in the next several months to go below 3 again, although not to a new low, and then really take off to the upside. With gas around 2.60 give or take a little, UNG would be a fantastic buy as it would likely be around 5-7. Maybe lower,(wherever it is it is) but at that point UNG would only have imo, blue skies ahead.

[astudent]

Looks like the general market is Close to a high.

[des00s]

In the crash of 1929 the market rallied back 57%. That would put the Dow at 10400. Of course back then they didn't have the trillions of quantitative easing lubing the wheels. Add in the fact that everyone and their mother is calling a market top and you have the ingredients for an extended run here. Not that I am going out and buying shares of Microsoft, but never underestimate "irrational exuberance".

[astudent]

5 clear waves down on the S&P hourly.. looks like

May or may not be the Exact correct count on the chart....

But

THE probability is extremely high there is more downside to come, very possibly after a countertrend rally

Interesting times in the markets..........

[astudent]

fwiw

the Dow may be making a higher high in here

The 5 wave drop in the previous chart may be a fourth wave.

I am not going to short in here at least until Monday.

Too dicy for me.