Quite the Rally: Crash due about October 2nd?

[BarnacleBob]

Yesterday's suggestion that "being short is a bad bet" turned out to be a pretty good call, with the Dow up 107, the NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) up 31, and the S&P posting similar gains. Today, the outlook is for more of the same. I'd look for another 50-100 on the upside, with Rick Ackerman's forecast ( www.marketwise.com) trip wire of 9582 looking like a possible resistance point for bears to defend.. Gold is getting whacked, too, down more than $2 in the preopen.

Now, here's a little chart that's interesting to look at because it shows, to my reptilian brain, about as good a picture of flooding the market with liquidity as you will ever see. It's the 10-year bond rate versus the Dow Jones Average for the last year. Have a look at the following link and you'll see this area on the right side of the chart where the Fed has been going crazy printing money and how after an initial divergence, the market is now reacting:

http://ichart.yahoo.com/z?s=^tnx&c=^...=2y&l=on&z=m&q=

Now for the scary part. Click on this link and look at how the Dow idely diverged from the 10-year bond leading into the fall of 1987.

http://ichart.yahoo.com/z?s=^tnx&c=^...y&l=on&z=m&q=l

So have a wonderful time at the party - while it lasts. I will keep adding to short positions for a while longer. Now let me build you something: (see chart below)

Now, a quick run through of the chart: The top dark blue squiggle is the 1987 bond rate. The bottom red squiggle is the 2003 bond rate (using 10-year in both cases, because as we all know, the real apples to apples would be the 30 year bond rate in 1987, but that rate because of Debtberg dynamics (setting up for a rollover) is no longer practical because who wants to lock up their money for 30 years these days?

So the spread from low (8.23) to high (10.23) was just 2 percentage points. When you graph that out, it means the bond high this time around should be about 5.1%, but when you draw the chart, you could make a case for 5.6 - 5.75. I've been telling folks for some time that as the bond approach 6%, the chances of a market crash increase, however, that's all theory and remains to be seen.

On the right side of the chart, you'll see I've taken the same distances and tried to "zone in" on where things could go. If you're a student of Rick Ackerman's methods, you might be able to infer, as I have, a possible target rate of 5.21% or a shade under.

Now let's talk about dates. The dates above are BOND dates and targets. We know from history that the Dow closed on October 16, 1987 at 2,246 and change, while the Monday close came in at 1,738 and change. That was a decline of about 22.6 percent. However, from the August high, 2722 down to the Black Monday close was a drop of 36%. The bond low followed the market crash, so we can shave a week or two off the October crash date from 87 which would us around Thursday October 2.

What does that set up? Well, let's assume that the "good times roll" through the end of this week and the market halts at one of Rick Ackerman's

hidden pivots at 9582. Where would that put the post crash Dow? Down from that high to about 6118.

[b]The problem with 6118 is that it will take a huge event to move the market like that. Something really off the wall or another terrorist event. But there's the numbers and a forecast.[ /B]


This does not mean it WILL happen. It's only a charting exercise with an eye toward interest rates which are behaving in a somewhat similar way to 1987 to my jaundiced eyes. This is NOT TRADING ADVICE. Seek professional advice before entering into any trade. Otherwise, you might end up like me, holding large and highly risky positions. Yes, I made money by being short UAL going into Black Monday in 1987, but being short QQQ's going into this one may not work because there may be no crash. Remember, the 1987 event was before the not really Federal Reserve started working with the Treasury Department's Plunge Protection Team. Betting against the Not really Federal Reserve is a risky business!

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

[BarnacleBob]

Interesting article.......

"The problem with 6118 is that it will take a huge event to move the market like that. Something really off the wall or another terrorist event. But there's the numbers and a forecast." --George Ure
SNIP:

A 1995 Formation Comes Back Into Focus

Now, either this part of my story has to be a freakish coincidence full of sound and fury and meaning nothing, or it could help to explain why there haven’t been any new crop circles in England since August 10, 2003.

In the last few days, an article that recently appeared on the Swirled News web site has caused a real buzz on the Internet – especially it seems amongst those predicting an apocalyptic event for Earth.

Swirled News, August 26, 2003
http://www.swirlednews.com/

DATE PREDICTED IN CROP FORMATION APPROACHES

Back in 1995, a formation clearly showed the inner part of our solar system, with the planets lined up as they will be on 6th September 2003… What should we expect on this almost imminent date, asks ANDY THOMAS?

…one of the more neglected astronomical crop patterns is the so-called ‘asteroid’ glyph at Tichborne, Hampshire, which appeared on 20th June 1995. This is another unarguable depiction of our inner solar system, showing an alignment of planets due to occur on 6th September 2003... Now less than two weeks away! (see attached image)

The design shows all the inner planets surrounded by a ring of ‘beads’, which appear to show significant positions of Mars over an eight-year period – in other words, the exact period between the appearance of the formation and the 2003 date predicted. Interesting to note that Mars is currently at its closest position to Earth for many years (peaking a week before the date shown in the formation) and is very bright in the sky at the moment.

Mark 6th September in your diaries, then. But don’t come complaining to us if nothing significant occurs… The meaning may be far more subtle than we know – or only become clearer retrospectively.

http://www.yowusa.com/Archive/Sep200...a/01sep03a.htm

Comet Watch

Meantime, several readers have spotted new comet C/2001 Q4 watching sites. One of these features menu bar sliders so you can move your visual perspective around: http://www.edinnet.com/OrbitViewer-1.3/C2001Q4.html. Another reader dug up an interesting link to a year-old Washington post story at http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp...nguage=printer which seems to validate much of what Jim McCanney has already pioneered, except it doesn't get into some of the potential problems. Another reader notes that if there was a lot of water in the tail of a comet that the earth flew through, don't you think that would account for all the rain (40 days and nights worth) in the Biblical stories of the Flood. Could be...

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

[BarnacleBob]

Vetting Andy’s Work

As I viewed the photo of the 1995 Tichborne formation, what immediately leapt out at me was the appearance of an unidentified object between the orbit of Venus and Earth.

From this point, we began the process of verifying Andy’s work with the following questions:

1) Did the formation actually appear in 1995?

2) Does the outer ring accurately reflect the previous positions of Mars as depicted in the outer ring of the formation?

3) Is the alignment of Mars, Earth, Venus and Mercury consistent with the date of September 6, 2003?

[BarnacleBob]

The Planetary Alignment for
September 6, 2003 Is Consistent

While Andy does not include detailed specifics about his “Comparative solar system diagram,” the same relative alignment can easily be generated using Starry Night Backyard or any similar astronomy program.

Without question, the formation reported as Tichborne 1995
by Andy Thomas, or as Gander Down, nr Winchester, Hampshire. 20-June-1995 by the Crop Circle Connector, clearly shows an alignment of the inner plants of our solar system on September 6, 2003.

And this brings us back to the nagging questions of why this 1995 formation, which was rather advanced for its day, shows an unidentified object between the orbit of Venus and Earth, why it uses Mars as a measure of time.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

So What Do We Look For Next?

The first thing we need to look for are new formations in England while there is still time. We do not feel that the Tichborne 1995 formation as documented by Andy Thomas is a prediction that a significant new formation will appear in England on September 6, 2003. Still the same, let’s hope that a new formation can somehow manage to sneak its way past the Apache helicopters and whatever else is covertly at play.

For those of you who like to follow The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) web site, please advise us at mail@yowusa.com on whatever imagery you find, especially on September 6, 2003.

Finally, there is something simple we can all do -- an acid test of something seriously wrong in the offing. Watch the price of gasoline.

During the 1973 oil embargo, Americans had to line up on long queues to buy a limited quantity of exorbitantly priced gasoline. What the media really did not report was that at the time the embargo began, every oil storage tank in refineries surrounding Houston was filled to capacity. Also, scores of oil tankers, equally filled to the brim were waiting at anchor to disgorge their cargoes of crude oil. How do I know this, I lived in Houston for five years and it was common knowledge to anyone connected to the oil business in any way.

So here we are with the price of gasoline well over $2.00 a gallon — ouch! Of course, they're telling us that it is because of the biggest blackout to his the USA, a broken oil pipeline to Phoenix and the seasonal demand for gasoline and “our friends” the Saudis have cut back production by 25% as a show of their political displeasure du jour.

If all this oil yadda-yadda is right, then we should see the price of gas start to fall towards pre-gouging levels after Labor Day and once the Saudis have finished making their political statement. If not, then this could mean that the the USA is restocking it’s fuel reserves for another reason, vis-à-vis artificially inflated prices designed to retard demand.

May the days of cheap gas return soon! May the 6th be a blissful non-event day.

http://www.yowusa.com/Archive/Sep200...a/01sep03a.htm

[BarnacleBob]

Update at 1700 PST -- Unidentified
SOHO Object (01-September 03)

I first released this story at 0100 PST. A few hours later I recieved the following E-mail from YOWUSA reader Bob Chapman in Australia.

From: "bob chapman"
To: "YOWUSA Mail"
Subject: SOHO photo as requested
Date: Mon, 1 Sep 2003 18:38:48 +0800

Marshall,
You asked for any recent SOHO photos that may have something of interest.

While they were still operating a few days ago and the three planets were moving ever so slowly through the frames this peeked out from behind the arm that holds the central disc in place.

Cheers
Bob

Bob attached a LASCO C3 taken on 28-August-2003. This SOHO image clearly shows an unidentified object that is too large to be a star. I ran this past Jacco van der Worp and he advised that he could not find the object Bob mentions in his current star chart.

When I first published this article, the SOHO web site was completely down. However, it is up now and showing the following LASCO C3 image.

And now this is where it gets interesting. The 29-August-2003 image has been edited in the area of the unidentified ‘winged’ object shown in the 9 -August-2003 image, as shown in the comparison composite image below.

So who did the editing? Bob Chapman in Australia or NASA after the SOHO site went down last night? Curious minds what to know.

Update: Phobos Observed on 22-Aug-03
by Austrian Astronomer (02-September-2003)

In the first release of this article, we asked our readers to submit an observation data from independent sources with regards to Phobos, because we openly wondered if the unidentified ‘winged’ object in the SOHO image noted above could be that of Phobos.

YOWUSA reader Dan McBeth sent us a link to a newly posted page with an independent observation of Mars and its satellites. The astronomer, Johannes Schedler, maintains his own personal observatory in Austria.

From: "danmcbeth"
To:
Subject: phobos
Date: Tue, 2 Sep 2003 21:31:34 -0700

check this link for pix of martian moons
http://panther-observatory.com/planet.htm#37

regards dan

Hats off to Dan and Johannes Schedler. Nonetheless, if anyone has any other independent observation reports of Phobos, please send them to our attention at mail@yowusa.com.

Also note, this still leaves the issue of the unidentified ‘winged’ object in the SOHO image open.

http://www.yowusa.com/Archive/Sep200...a/01sep03a.htm