Silver Standard, the perpetual call option on silver........

[Scorpio]

Many of us here already own and know about this company. I haven't brought it up as it is typically in the 'know' for silver bugs. But, here it goes.

From their website:
Silver Standard Resources Inc. is among the few publicly-traded companies in North America that are focused on the development of silver deposits internationally. Silver Standard's objective since 1994 has been to acquire significant in-ground silver resources and to develop these projects into silver-producing mines. All but one of the company's projects have been purchased or optioned at a fraction of silver's current price and at a significant discount to the investment by prior owners.

What is under the hood?
For starters they have,
1,100,000 ounces of gold resources

and
367,000,000 ounces of silver resources.

They are one of the major controllers of future silver deposits. They have had the foresight to accumulate silver resources throughout this bear market, at vastly depressed prices, and sit them on care and maintainence until the market rights itself to the upside. They were diving into these waters while others were drowning in red ink.

What does that mean? They are going to bring some of these silver projects online in the near future as silver prices continue to head north. Once they do this, the sheer weight of their resources are going to REQUIRE a major rerating of this stock.

An example of their continuing management prowess was release 11/13:

"BP-16 intersected 3.8 ounces of silver per ton over 256.6 feet (129.9 grams of silver per tonne over 78.2 meters) and BP-15, collared at the same location as BP-16, intersected 3.9 ounces of silver per ton over 220.1 feet (134.7 grams of silver per tonne over 67.1 meters). All three holes ended in mineralization, indicating significant lateral and depth potential in the newly discovered zone."

http://www.silver-standard.com/s/New...ReportID=71164
(for the whole news release)

Financials: For second quarter 2003 + all archived go here
http://www.silverstandard.com/i/pdf/...ondQuarter.pdf

As you will read, they have enough cash and cash equivalents to pay their bills through 2005. They are well funded and can raise the cash as needed to continue on their plan, without selling silver at depressed prices.

With the number of shares outstanding at only 40M, they meet my criteria for low share to resource usage. I absolutely abhor the companies with 150M - 200M on up shares outstanding. They would need such a huge infusion of profits in order to ever pay dividends that I just don't see it happening. This company does not have the same issues.

With only 40M shares outstanding what does that get you?
Well it gets you,
$11.00 worth of gold in the ground, (shares out to gold resources to $400 gold)

and
$49.54 worth of silver in the ground, (shares out to silver resources to $5.40 silver)

That is market value of existing resources, now subtract the costs:
1.1M oz x$250/oz cost = 275M cost to get the gold out.
1.1M oz x $400/oz revenue = $440 M revenue at spot.

Net revenue would be $165M / 40M shares or $4.12 for the gold.

It gets better:

367M oz silver x $4.50/oz cost = $1.65B cost to get the silver out.
367M oz silver x $5.40/oz revenue at spot = $1.98B revenue total.

Net revenue would be $334Million / 40M shares or $8.35 per share.

Add it up and at todays prices (they are holding for better prices)

You have a stock that is worth $12.47 per share.

If as they suggest you wait for higher silver prices, then the following may be reviewed with gold still at $400 and silver at $10/ounce.

367M oz silver costs from prior = $1.65B
367M oz silver x $10/oz revenue at future prices of silver = $3.67B revenue.

Net revenue at rerated silver prices would be $2.02B.
This results in silver value to the shareholder of $50.50 per share.

We all know if silver is at $10 that gold will be much higher, but excluding that fact add the two together and at $10 silver you get a total share value of :

$54.62 Per Share at current outstanding issuance.

Let's move on to where it is currently:

From the daily chart:
Share price of $8.02 and in a bullish mode, on its' way to test the old highs around the $8.50 mark. Last time up in this neighborhood, the stock had gone a little too far too fast, only to be sold back down to the uptrend. Ever since it has been grinding its' way ever higher, working for each piece of ground as it goes. There might be enough room in the techs to allow a push to higher highs near term if the spot silver market stays firm. Volume is picking up, as the action is heating up once again in this company.

From the weekly:
The story is graphically portrayed even better. For those that have been willing to dive in where no one else dares, that being the PM markets, they have been richly rewarded to date. I see the best as yet to come as the activity up to this point has been the precursor to future activity here. This stock is showing no signs of weakness, every pullback is met with further buying as the story is starting to spread.

That story being that this stock does have the goods, and it will be a long term outstanding investment for the patient investor. Now you know why it is considered a perpetual call option on silver and a bull market in Precious Metals.

I do have positions in this stock, do your own due dilligence as you are on your own here. This is in my opinion, I have not been paid to write this. But, I will tell you that this is one of the best out there, and that truly does have the 'goods'. There are many stocks that you can be unsure of as you dive into Jr's, but this one you can rest assured that the resources are there.

Scorpio

[xzorro]

Hi Scorpio ! Nice summary and good to have that info. In fact I have by now just a rather small position, but considering yr info and the chart it makes sense to increase my position. In fact the so-called Risk of Entry is at this stage low.

Many people still evaluate these miners on basis of P/E, Growth, Dividend, ... With rising silver prices that is not the proper way to evaluate - as you made quite clear.

BR

[xzorro]

Hi Scorpio ! Apparently the market is impressed with your report. SSRI: +5.1 % UP, now @ ~8.43
Most gold/ silver miners consolidating today, but not SSRI.

That is a good job ...
BR

[runner]

Thanks Scorpio!

I've been going back and forth, trying to decide which silver stock to choose for my long term core position. After reading your excellent summary, I finally(!)decided on SSRI. A nice quick 10% rise made up for the time I wasted hesitating.

[xzorro]

Since early 2001 SSRI is in a solid uptrend. There has been horizontal resistance ~8.0 - 8.15. The last week SSRI has again made large gains. Considering the uptrendline and the Ascending Triangle (from June till November) one may expect that there may be resistance ~11 - 11.5.

From the Dow Theory we know that a solid trend almost always lasts longer than expected. Also on that basis adding further SSRI shares makes sense.

Also yesterday the silver miners ( & mining cos) have made large gains:

CDE + 11.4 %
PAAS + 4.7 %
SIL + 2.9 %
SSRI + 7.6 %

Note: Everything IMHO - so do your own DD

Chart: courtesy stockcharts.com

[G-khan]

Thanks scorpio - I bought some of this at 6.50 because of you. When you give thumbs up on a stock I suggest all pay attention....Good job and thanks to you I have some!

[lhslancers]

Then I guess you're buying. Really a sweet call and one great company. Atta boy S.

[Scorpio]

Well, boys, then let's be careful out there, because as you can see this thing went on a whale of a run, and now pegged overbought status:

From the charts we have been on a straight up run, and it looks as though the time has come to back off. If physical does not break through the 540, that may be the key to start a correction.

On the daily with both the MACD and RSI, we can see where this stock has went vertical, driving straight into huge overbought status. Cautionary note, a stock can remain overbought for only so long before the thing chops sideways or corrects big in order to peel off some of this enthusiasm. Note too on the daily how the volume spiked going into this rise, and now has backed off considerably. This smells like a correction coming as the loss of conviction in the buyers is starting to show. Currently the strong physical market is holding it up.

On the weekly, it is also moving into overbought status. If you exclude the excitement spike to 8 on the uptrending channel, you can see we are approaching the top of the channel once again. Note how once we move into overbought status, or top of channel, it tends to bleed off some of the enthusiasm with a concerted pull back. (excluding the excitement spike where it took a header shortly after)

Anyway, let's be careful out there!!